Presidential elections in Bulgaria tomorrow, a second round expected

Citizens of Bulgaria will vote in presidential elections tomorrow, but it is expected that the winner will only be known in the second round, which should see the current head of state, Ilijana Iotova, and economist Andrey Gyurov advance.

Iotova is running as an independent candidate, but has the support of the ruling Progressive Bulgaria party of Prime Minister Rumen Radev and the Socialist Party, where she began her political career.

Gyurov, a former deputy governor of the central bank and prime minister of the caretaker government during the first months of 2026, is supported by the pro-Western reformist opposition.

Analysts expect that none of the 27 candidates will become president in the first round of elections, as two conditions are required for this: turnout must be higher than 50 percent of the 6.6 million registered voters, and the winner must secure a majority of votes.

Turnout tomorrow is expected to be less than 40 percent, which would mean that a second round of voting will be held on November 1, according to the Associated Press.

In Bulgaria, the role of president is predominantly ceremonial, as in Serbia—the head of state does not have executive powers and all important decisions must be approved by parliament, but direct election gives the president political authority. The president is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, has the right to veto laws, signs international agreements, and appoints ambassadors.

The president of Bulgaria is elected directly for a term of five years, and no one can serve more than two terms, as is the case in Serbia.

Iotova, a 62-year-old journalist and former member of the European Parliament, is considered the favorite in the election and would become Bulgaria’s first female president if she wins. She was vice president while Radev was president (2017-2026), and assumed the presidency in January this year when he resigned to participate in the parliamentary elections on April 19.

Ahead of those elections, Radev founded Progressive Bulgaria, which is considered a center-left party, although it combines elements of left-wing populism, nationalism, social democracy, conservatism, and moderate Euroscepticism. The party won a convincing victory in the April elections, securing 43 percent of the vote, and Radev became prime minister.

According to a poll conducted by the Market Links agency from October 13 to 19, Iotova has the support of 47.3 percent of voters, while Gyurov has 30.6 percent. Analysts assess that Gyurov’s chances would increase in the second round.

The election campaign was mainly focused on Russia’s war against Ukraine and the spread of that conflict to the Black Sea region, including deadly drone attacks on merchant ships.

Candidates also sought to address public concerns over the sharp rise in energy prices and high inflation, at a time when many Bulgarians in rural areas are struggling to make ends meet, according to AP.

Bulgaria joined NATO in 2004 and the European Union (EU) in 2007. Although there is broad consensus among parliamentary parties on the country’s pro-Western course, widespread pro-Russian sentiment, based on traditional historical and cultural ties with Russia, has led to divisions in society, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Radev has often emphasized that he will keep Bulgaria on the European path, but has also advocated for improving relations with Russia and lifting the sanctions imposed by the EU on Moscow. Analysts expect that if Iotova wins, she will continue the policy pursued by Radev.

Dobromir Zhivkov, executive director of the Market Links agency, told the Associated Press that Iotova belongs to a political current that advocates for a more neutral position for Bulgaria.

“They advocate for ending aid to Ukraine and halting arms deliveries to that country. We often hear them use Kremlin rhetoric and terminology taken directly from Kremlin propaganda,” Zhivkov said.

At a rally this week, Iotova stated that her stance on the war in Ukraine is one of the key points that distinguishes her from other candidates. She said she advocates for peace to be achieved through negotiations, not by force.

“Do we want the Black Sea to become a closed military zone? We will by no means agree to such a decision. I will not accept this warmongering,” Iotova said at the rally.

A series of drone attacks on at least seven cargo ships in the Black Sea, carried out this month near the coasts of Bulgaria and Romania, two NATO members, has raised concerns that Russia could escalate the conflict, according to AP.

The attacks, carried out in the exclusive economic zones of Bulgaria and Romania, threaten a global maritime route and have resulted in the deaths of three people, while at least 28 are reported missing. The attacks also increase the risk of directly involving other countries in the Russia-Ukraine war.