Second round of presidential elections in Brazil, race between Lula and Bolsonaro

Brazilians are voting today in the second round of presidential elections between the current leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro.

Eighty-year-old Lula da Silva is running for a fourth non-consecutive term.

Flavio Bolsonaro is the son of former right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for planning a coup after losing the 2022 election.

Bolsonaro Jr. received the most votes in the first round of the presidential elections on October 4, and U.S. President Donald Trump, an ally of his father, called it a “very big victory.”

According to the AP agency, this electoral race will determine whether the U.S. will significantly expand its growing influence in Latin America.

Polls ahead of today’s election showed the two candidates were tied. A candidate needs to win more than 50 percent of the votes to become the country’s next president in January.

In the first round, Flavio Bolsonaro had about 2.2 million more votes than Lula. More than 33 million voters out of nearly 160 million did not vote in the first round.

The difference between the two candidates is stark. Bolsonaro and Lula have opposing ideological views on issues ranging from U.S.-Brazil relations and climate change to social welfare.

A Bolsonaro victory would mean a shift to the right for the most populous Latin American country and its largest economy, in a year when Trump’s allies have recorded victories in Chile, Peru, and Colombia.

A victory for Lula would leave Brazil and Mexico, the second most populous Latin American country led by President Claudia Sheinbaum, with center-left leaders.

Four years ago, Lula defeated Bolsonaro’s father, Jair Bolsonaro, by the smallest margin since the country returned to democracy in 1985. Polls suggest this election could be even closer.

Lula, who first governed the country between 2003 and 2010, faced a tough re-election battle due to concerns over the cost of living and security. Flavio Bolsonaro took a hardline approach to crime, which is a main pillar of his campaign, and promised to reduce food costs.

Both have been affected by suspicions of corruption related to family members and allies, and Bolsonaro is involved in a major scandal shaking Brazil. Lula spent more than a year in prison on corruption charges that were eventually overturned.

Bolsonaro’s admission that he accepted about $12 million from convicted former banker Daniel Vorokar to produce a film about his father’s life has cast a shadow over his campaign. He is under investigation for corruption, money laundering, and tax evasion in connection with the case.

During the campaign, Lula often portrayed Bolsonaro, whose father is under house arrest for attempting a coup, as a threat to democracy. Bolsonaro has promised to seek amnesty for his father if elected.

The next president will appoint at least three Supreme Court justices out of 11 due to upcoming retirements. Bolsonaro has long targeted the country’s highest court, which has been shaken by a corruption scandal, and has promised to push for judicial reform.

Lula, who is trying to attract undecided voters, has invested in costly incentives since losing in the first round of voting. His government’s latest move is the approval of a debt relief program for small businesses and a promise of free public transportation on weekends.

Lula criticized the U.S. president before the election, speaking about the risks of American intervention in Brazilian elections when the Trump administration imposed high tariffs on Brazilian exports, imposed sanctions on the Supreme Court judge who presided over the investigation that ended with Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction. He also declared groups that smuggle drugs as terrorist organizations, which experts say was intended to portray Lula as soft on crime.

Flavio Bolsonaro boasted of his closeness to the White House and said Brazil needs to make better deals with the Trump administration, including those concerning rare minerals. Brazil estimates it has about 21 million tons of these minerals, second only to China. He denies that the U.S. government is helping him.

Voting in Brazil is conducted electronically and results are usually available a few hours after the polls close.