Analysis: Trump’s deportations could reduce Americans’ pensions by about $2,152

A new economic analysis warns that the mass deportations carried out by Donald Trump’s administration could reduce average annual Social Security payments by about $2,152 by 2034, or approximately 8.6 percent.

The study was conducted by Economic Insights and Research Consulting, which points out that the key issue is the financing of the Social Security system: it is paid out from employee contributions, so a decline in the number of workers reduces payments and threatens pension amounts.

Researchers state that the American labor market has lost approximately 1.2 million foreign-born workers over the past two years, and they note that immigrants without regulated status contribute to the pension system. The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimated that such contributions amounted to about $24 billion in 2024, even though most of these individuals are not entitled to benefits.

The article also recalls official projections warning that the fund for pensions and family benefits could exhaust its reserves by 2032 unless Congress takes action. The authors of the study emphasize that the $2,152 reduction in pensions is an estimate of a possible economic scenario, not an adopted decision.